Iraq, Iran again
USNews.com has a lengthy piece on Iranian involvement in Iraq, focussing on the post-war period (pity, post-war involvement isn’t that surprising, I'm mainly interested in the extent of pre-war involvement). USNews claims: "… a review of thousands of pages of intelligence reports by U.S. News reveals the critical role Iran has played in aiding some elements of the anti-American insurgency after Baghdad fell--and raises important questions about whether Iran will continue to try to destabilize Iraq after elections are held. The classified intelligence reports, covering the period July 2003 through early 2004, were prepared by the CIA; the Defense Intelligence Agency; the Iraq Survey Group, the 1,400-person outfit President Bush sent to Iraq to find weapons of mass destruction; the Coalition Provisional Authority; and various military commands and units in the field, including the V Corps and the Pentagon's Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force. The reports are based on information gathered from Iraqis, Iranian dissidents, and other sources inside Iraq. U.S. News also reviewed British intelligence assessments of the postwar phase in Iraq."
As I read it, USNews obtained raw data from intelligence agencies and have analysed this uncorroborated data. Furthermore, the actual source of the documents remains unmentioned. I have no reason to believe USNews has taken any effort at all to investigate the accuracy of the information they obtained. We've seen in the run-up to the Iraq war what can happen if we base ourselves on information like this and it's not pretty.
Having said that, it is very plausible Iran is extensively and directly involved in Iraq. As I have written before, Iran simply has too much to gain in making sure the US fails in Iraq. If the US is bogged down in Iraq it cannot mount a significant response to any actions Iran might choose to take, which gives Iran considerable leverage. Furthermore, the Iraq war has provided the Iranian Mullahs with an external enemy they used to rally the country behind them. The internal pressure on the Mullahs, strong during the last "elections" is fading. The war also inflated oil prices, making sure the Mullahs are doing very well financially.
The only pressure Iran faces today comes from the EU (and to a lesser degree Russia). Europe still has significant economic and diplomatic ties to Iran and has recently stepped up its efforts to use these to influence Iran, mainly on the issue of nuclear proliferation. Although in can be argued Europe's success up to now has been limited, some progress has been made. Considering the strength of the Iranian military relative to the available capacity of the international community, we currently have only the diplomatic option. It would be helpful if the US and other countries would join the EU in its policy towards Iran.
No trackbacks:
Trackback link:
Please enable javascript to generate a trackback url
Posted by in Old Stuff @ 16 11 04 | No comments / No trackbacks
