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Welcome to my website!
DutchDreams is a weblog focussed on dreaming up a bright future and anticipating the long term challenges facing us.
New readers might want to check out the power of dreams to find out more about the ideas behind his website.
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Enjoy!

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The Wisdom of the Crowds


A while ago I wrote about the book "The Wisdom of the Crowds" and, more to the point, about the experiment "The jellybean challenge" associated with it. I wrote then the experiment would probably fail. It ran until somewhere in august, the website displays the following eversince:

"Thanks to everyone who participated in the Wisdom of Crowds jelly bean challenge. Please check back soon for the contest results."

Now publishing the result is quite an easy task, not one that would last months. So I was probably right, someone did guess the exact number of beans. They should have let someone with at least half a brain devise the experiment (or trust it to the wisdom of the crowds ofcourse ;)). Whether or not this is true, they ought to come clean.

It is a pitty though, the Wisdom of the Crowds thesis deserves better and a better experiment (one that would actually support their claim) can be easilly devised (use a billion times more beans).





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Posted by in Old Stuff @ 06 10 04 | No comments / No trackbacks

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Linkdump

Dutch sistersite

I've started Dietse Dromen, a Dutch language weblog, with my friend Marc, check it out some day!

Posted @ 10 11 05 | No comments

Mapping the global future

The National Intelligence Counsel of the US dreamed up the likely world in 2020. Read the results here (bulky pdf), over a hundred pages worth of scenarios for the future...

Posted @ 28 01 05 | No comments

ComTech review

The new Community Tech review is online. Lots of interesting stuff...

Posted @ 26 01 05 | No comments

Automotive Dreams

Tim Leuliette made an interesting speech on the future of the automobile industry, oil and the hydrogen economy.

Posted @ 24 01 05 | No comments

Changing Opinions in a Changing World: A new perspective in Sociophysics

I found this article in the ArXiv today. In it, some applications and implications of recent advances in the reletively new field of sociophysics are discussed. This piece reminds me of a quote I once read of James Trefil:

Read More...

Posted @ 27 10 04 | No comments

Conference: ICT, Knoledge society and changes in work

Perhaps readers will find this interesting:

Read More...

Posted @ 26 10 04 | No comments

"Sociophysics" or complex network theory

RedNova has been so kind to write the post I was working on, introducing complex network theory or "sociophysics" to the readers of this blog. Not much depth, but a nice intro to those of you new to the subject. (via Minding the Planet)

Posted @ 21 10 04 | No comments

Organisational hierarchy in intelligence analysis

Orgnet.com has a short piece applying some of the lessons of complexity theory to organising the intelligence community.

Posted @ 20 10 04 | No comments

"Hacking democracy in the UK"

Scalefree.net points to some interesting developments in the UK, explained at perfect.co.uk. This may get interesting...

Posted @ 20 10 04 | No comments

DEMOS: Masters of the Universe

Another interesting piece of thinking from demos: Masters of the universe. Exploring the implications and possibilities coming with cheap spacetrabel.

Posted @ 13 10 04 | No comments

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