To Do List or What are the chalanges facing us?
Since the aim of this project is to look into the changes in the world today and in the future, to anticipate, understand, direct and facilitate our future lives, let's start out by cataloging some of the issues before us. The following list is by no means complete, ordered, exclusive or otherwise authorative, as of yet, consider it a start of this conversation between the world and ourselves...
The Democratic Paradox
There appears to be a crises in modern democracy. Although hailed as a cure for all, most established democracies seem to be eroding.
Market Fundamentalism
Under a gaze of “privatization”, “liberalization”, “concentration” and the like, the fundaments of our market economy are eroding.
Energy
Our current energy regime is failing. Some form of change is due.
Demographics
Most “western” countries are ageing and so is China, while India and the Arab nations (among others) still have a relatively young population. How will these and other demographics influence the coming decades?
Food, water, natural resources
Let’s take a Malthusian view at our world
Climate Change
Climate will change over the coming decades, probably significantly. What can we predict, can/need we prepare?
ICT
How are new ICT tools changing our world?
Globalization
Are we witnessing the formation of a global community? Is the global village in some sense real? What does it mean?
Free culture, Open Access
A silent war is raging between supporters of intellectual property protection and those supporting what has become known as “open access” and “free culture”
That's it for now, anyone dreamed up anything else?
Keywords: Future,Foresight
Tags used in this posting
Europeanisation
It is a process that can be defined in multiple ways. Are we moving towards some sort of United States of Europe? Is cultural diversity blending into a single European culture? Is the European Union setting new standards for legal issues, cultural dominance, military power and economic prosperity?
Morality and good government
Questions that we need to ask ourself are: what is good government? which norms and values should leaders obey and uphold? Which moral issues are at stake in our time and how have certain moral issues been resolved?
Marijn () - 07 09 04
Good points, Marijn. I should add an earlier omisions myself;
Matters of war and peace (terrorism and otherwise)
rikkert () (URL) - 08 09 04
In the context of the project of our changing world I post this discussion piece on the accession of Turkey into the European Union. I think there is a clear link between the concept of Europeanisation to be discovered.
Turkey joins the EU
Lately everybody seems to have an opinion on the possible accession of Turkey into the European Union. Strange when you realize that Turkey has applied to become member back in 1987 and has already received the status of applicant country (this is the same status the Central and Eastern European Countries had previous to their accession)
The ethnic nature of the country seems to be salient at the background of the discussion. Far more prominent are arguments on size and the socio-political situation. Turkey is too big and will therefore disrupt the workings of the EU and create a decision-making deadlock in the already overstretched institutions of the EU. I for one fail to see how one country would disrupt an already heterogeneous Union, which moreover is capable to accommodate 10 new countries. Far more logical is the explanation that large countries inside the EU fear that their power base is compromised when a country with 12 votes in the Council and 2 Commissioners joins the club.
The socio-political situation then. I hear enlargement Commissioner Verheugen say that Turkey is doing to little to fight corruption. The situation with respect to human rights (vague terminology) is also not sufficient yet. Finally we have some outspoken problems that indeed should be the focus of discussion. Here the Turkish government of Erdogan has in fact done much to improve the situation with respect to corruption. Not enough probably, but there seems to be progress. When I listen to people who say that these high levels of corruption are precisely the reason why Turkey should be kept outside the EU, I always wonder whether they have ever bothered to look at the eight former ‘soviet’ countries and see if their corruption record is much better. I have, its terrible. But it has improved, though, and that is partly thanks to the will of these countries to join the EU, that wont tolerate high levels of corruption. Also with respect to the situation with the human rights I would propose the same solution as has been used in the case of Central and Eastern Europe. Agree that they can join the EU when they meet our conditions. As simple as that. Start membership negotiations with Turkey and monitor their progress closely, the same as we’ve done during all previous enlargement rounds.
I see several positive effects of Turkish membership. For one, the accession of such a large economy gives a boost to the European economy and a huge market to produce and export our products. Moreover a large Muslim country in our ranks would give the EU a legitimate say in the problems that exist in the Arab world, with borders then stretching far inside the Middle East. NATO has, so why not the EU?
But perhaps we are all a bit afraid, deep down inside, of the image of the horrible Attaturk with his big sharp saber that comes to force us to become Muslims (I freely quote ex-Commissioner Bolkestein during his speech at the opening of the academic year at the University of Leiden)
Kim () - 13 09 04
Hi Kim,
I think the points you make with respect to Turkeys accession imto the EU are all valid. There are some other things to be kept in mind. With respect to size: Turkey will by itself form a significant powerblock (especially considering the almost 2 million Turks already living in the EU), compareble (perhaps even bigger?) to Germany now. You’ll probably remember the hell the French raised when East and West Germany united… Not only do the large EU members feels their power base compromised, they will have to face a power hardly rivalled in EU history. That much concentration is something to wory about.
A further positive is in the demographics. Unlike Europe, Turkey has plenty of youth…
rikkert () (URL) - 14 09 04
I agree with your points. About the first; it is quit clear that the current ‘most powerful’ fear a new large county with whom they have to share power. But they have allowed this in the past: you mention Germany (82,5 million), but also think about Poland (38,6 million) and much earlier Great-Britain (now 60 million).
The thing that intrigues me is why pragmatic (the outcome it expected to produce) and moral arguments loose from ethnical-political arguments in the case of secularized Turkey (the division between pragmatic, ethnical-political and moral is made by Habermas).
Do we need another big disaster, bigger than the terrible earthquake of august 1999 (17000 killed), before our pragmatic and moral minds take the upper hand? Until this changes, I fear, that our natural fear of the unknown will continue to determine the debate.
Rikkert, I would like to attach an article by Helene Sjursen on the different types of arguments and how Turkey is the exception. How do I do that?
Kim () - 14 09 04
Kim,
I’d be interested to learn more about the different arguments. You can post the URL to the article in the comments, or alternatively send me the article by email, in which case I’ll put it online (barring copyright restrictions).
rikkert () (URL) - 14 09 04
Did you mean this article?
http://www.isanet.org/noarchive/sjursen...
rikkert () (URL) - 14 09 04
No, that’s not the one I mean, its in that articles’ references though:
Sjursen, H. 2001: Why Expand? The Question of Justification in the EU’s Enlargement Policy. Arena Working Paper no. 6.
The good thing is that Arena working papers are accessible without charge.
Kim () (URL) - 14 09 04
This time with the webpage:
http://www.arena.uio.no/cidel/sjursen%20..
Kim () - 14 09 04
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