One of the most important characteristics of the 21st century is
change. The world we live in is changing so fast that it is almost impossible to keep track of what is under way. Some, like
Ray Kurzweil, argue the rate of change in society is accelerating exponentially. This situation drives the need for a new physics for civilisation. It has led
Vernor Vinge to propose a technological
singularity. This has been a great concept for science fiction writers and has produced some good reading. I am not a science fiction writer though. In physics, when the rate of change starts to interfere with measurement we turn to
Heisenberg. So did Joshua Cooper Ramo of the
Foreign Policy Centre in his article "
The Beijing consensus". This is where I first encountered the notion of "
Heisenberg society". The article is long but well worth a read if you are into
geopolitics.
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Posted by in Dreaming @ 05 01 06 | No comments / No trackbacks
An organisational philosophy for the 21st century
A new philosophy of organisation is emerging; a new way of solving problems, of getting things done. It goes by names such as
peer production,
peer to peer,
the pro-am revolution,
the network society,
extreme or
everyday democracy,
fourth generation warfare, etc. depending on your sphere of interest. I have come to call it
Interparism ("inter pares" is Latin for "among peers"). Interparism is based on the simple notion that problems are best solved by those affected by them, action is best taken by those who care. Though still fragmented and unarticulated, I think it is the organisational model of choice for the twenty first century. This is much to big a subject to cover in a single entry, the following can be considered an introduction.
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Posted by in Dreaming @ 10 12 05 | No comments / No trackbacks
“I have a dream” where the words. Spoken by someone rebelling against the existing social order. Someone who saw the inherent contradictions within the paradigms of his society and the suffering they created. He saw these contradictions were not being addressed effectively, so shared with the world his dream. A dream so powerful and put into words so eloquently, that while it may not yet be fulfilled completely, it resonated throughout Western civilisation and changed it beyond recognition. It’s impact so enormous, you know exactly what I am talking about, though I have only quoted four words of a speech.
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Posted by in Dreaming @ 20 01 05 | No comments / No trackbacks
It is looking very much as if Hubberts Peak is nearing. Experts place it within the next decade, with oil production flattening out as of this winter. Maybe a few bumps in production will occur along the line if the Caspian Sea fields will move into production more or less simultaneously with the Iraqi fields, but other then that, oil production is heading down. At the same time, demand is rising faster than anticipated. Since there is no longer much spare capacity anywhere, this rising demand wont be offset by production increase. I'd say our present energy regime is at an end. Although oil prices can be considered high at the moment, I certainly do not expect oil prices to tend downwards for any serious length of time. And to make thing worse still, most oil producing regions are facing serious security issues. Lets explore some of the consequences.
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Posted by in Dreaming @ 02 11 04 | two comments / No trackbacks
A lot has been said on the subject of terrorism, but surprisingly little about it's future. What impact will terrorism have on this century? Let me paint a grim scenario to get some discussion going...
Terrorism can be an extremely effective strategy for those whose interests lie in escalation and chaos, for those who see no other ways to influence their children’s futures. Although not many a cause will be served by terror, some are. Currently, what I will call "Al Qaida terrorism" (more on that later), is the absolute focus of attention. I believe the coming decades will see proponents of different causes increasingly adopt this strategy.
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Posted by in Dreaming @ 26 09 04 | three comments / No trackbacks
Since the aim of this project is to look into the changes in the world today and in the future, to anticipate, understand, direct and facilitate our future lives, let's start out by cataloging some of the issues before us. The following list is by no means complete, ordered, exclusive or otherwise authorative, as of yet, consider it a start of this conversation between the world and ourselves...
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Posted by in Dreaming @ 05 09 04 | nine comments / No trackbacks
